This month the Reserve Bank of Australia did
something it hadn't done since 2002 - cut rates. Only by 25 basis
points but it's the start the property market needs.
Of
course, mortgage holders paying close to 9.5 per cent would most likely
have thought: "So what?" After all, I spend more on coffee in a month
than 50 bucks so it's hardly going to save one from going under. In
truth, a cut of 25 basis points barely touched sides.
In fact
household budgets are continuing to tighten further, consumption is
slowing and the state of the housing market so far this year has been
woeful and the evidence is clear.
In the first half of this year, Adelaide was the only capital city to experience capital growth. Hardly a surprise.
Not just housing and spending, but credit growth continues to slow and
unemployment is edging up. So, it is pretty clear now, that the risks
of stalling the economy are now materially evident.
This will no doubt weigh heavily on the minds of RBA board members on Tuesday week.
But I have no faith that lenders will pass on a cut. You see, lenders are also under pressure from higher funding costs.
The
90-day bank bill yields are a good indicator of these costs and they
too have been rising despite the inevitability of rate cuts soon.
This
too, will weigh heavily on the minds of the Reserve Bank Board. I
reckon, and I am not the only one, that we will see a cut of 50 basis
points to the cash rate and, by Jove, we need it.
It is
only this sort of double cut that will bring stability back to the
market - stability that sellers and buyers need to feel confident in
the market again.