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28 Sep 2008
Heavy rate cuts needed to rescue the market

This month the Reserve Bank of Australia did something it hadn't done since 2002 - cut rates. Only by 25 basis points but it's the start the property market needs.

Of course, mortgage holders paying close to 9.5 per cent would most likely have thought: "So what?" After all, I spend more on coffee in a month than 50 bucks so it's hardly going to save one from going under. In truth, a cut of 25 basis points barely touched sides.

In fact household budgets are continuing to tighten further, consumption is slowing and the state of the housing market so far this year has been woeful and the evidence is clear.


In the first half of this year, Adelaide was the only capital city to experience capital growth. Hardly a surprise.


Not just housing and spending, but credit growth continues to slow and unemployment is edging up. So, it is pretty clear now, that the risks of stalling the economy are now materially evident.

This will no doubt weigh heavily on the minds of RBA board members on Tuesday week.


But I have no faith that lenders will pass on a cut. You see, lenders are also under pressure from higher funding costs.

The 90-day bank bill yields are a good indicator of these costs and they too have been rising despite the inevitability of rate cuts soon.

This too, will weigh heavily on the minds of the Reserve Bank Board. I reckon, and I am not the only one, that we will see a cut of 50 basis points to the cash rate and, by Jove, we need it.


It is only this sort of double cut that will bring stability back to the market - stability that sellers and buyers need to feel confident in the market again.

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